In 2009, as part of Environment Outlook 2030 (VMM) and Nature Outlook 2030 (INBO), a spatial-dynamic land use model was developed for Flanders to explore possible developments in land use for the period 2005-2030. The aim was to provide policy makers and the interested public insight into expected changes in the environment and nature in Flanders against the background of certain policy decisions and within a specified socio-economic context.

At the centre of the spatial-dynamic land use model is the land use map. The aim was to split up the 28 land use classes so that the model could be used more effectively for calculating the spatial consequences of developments in the MIRA sectors and subsectors. In particular, an analysis was made of the most problematic sectors: Energy, Trade & Services, Industry, and Households. The results of this study are collected in the Land Use Map for Flanders and Brussels report.

The second report, Land Use Model Refinement, uses the reference scenario from Environment Outlook 2030, but with the updated land use map. The researchers conclude that the future land use in Flanders as it emerges from Environment Outlook 2030 remains the same: there will be further expansion of the built-up area at the expense of agriculture, the area of green space will increase significantly although the area per inhabitant will hardly change, and there will be limited, but stronger, growth in the industrial sites category. The main differences from the earlier version of the land use model are the stronger decline in the ‘Other open space’ and ‘Unmanaged nature’ categories, and there is also a smaller decline in the agriculture category. It proved quite possible to achieve a spatially and temporally realistic model behaviour, including with regard to the expansion of major cities and industrial sites during the period 2005-2030 and the decrease of agricultural area.

The distribution and employment of the population up to 2030 was looked at in detail. In addition, construction in flood areas was estimated, taking into consideration the recent flood areas as designated up to and including 2010. Finally, the increase in built-up area and the area with soil sealing (degree of built-up area) up to 2030 was quantified.

Download the full reports (in Dutch):
o Landgebruikskaart voor Vlaanderen en Brussel (Land Use Map for Flanders and Brussels)
o Verfijning Ruimtemodel (Land Use Model Refinement)

Read the English summaries of the reports ‘Verfijning ruimtemodel’ (Land Use Model Refinement) and ‘Landgebruikskaart voor Vlaanderen en Brussel’ (Land Use Map for Flanders and Brussels).

MIRA contact: Stijn Overloop (s.overloop@vmm.be)